The March Continues

The situation

It is late July 1812 and you stand in Napoleon's headquarters at Vitebsk. You command the largest army Europe has ever assembled, and it is already shrinking. The Russians refuse to stand and fight: they burn their own depots, trade space for time, and fall back east. Your supply wagons cannot keep pace with your infantry. Typhus and desertion take more men each week than skirmishes do. Your staff urges a halt: consolidate at Vitebsk, build magazines, resume in spring. Your instinct says one more push will force the decisive battle that ends this in a month. Moscow is far away, but so is the version of you that could still turn back cheaply.

Background

Napoleon's Russian campaign is the canonical case of sunk-cost escalation inside a war of attrition. The Russian command under Kutuzov understood that it did not need to defeat the Grande Armee, only to keep it marching and starving. At Vitebsk, at Smolensk, and in Moscow itself, Napoleon faced clean exit points and pressed on each time, partly because so much had already been spent. Clausewitz, who served on the Russian side, made the campaign a foundational study in how armies destroy themselves.

What this reveals

The war of attrition rewards whoever can wait

Napoleon's opponent never needed to beat him, only to keep him paying. Once you are in a contest where each period of continuing costs more than it gains, the money and lives already spent are not an investment to protect but a bill already paid. Escalating to redeem sunk costs is how large forces destroy themselves against patient ones.

How to counter it: Before entering any costly contest, write down the condition under which you will stop. Decide it while you are still cheap to stop, because you will not decide it well once you are deep in.

A question to sit with

What campaign are you continuing today mainly because of what it has already cost you?

Frequently asked questions

What game theory concept does The March Continues illustrate?

The March Continues illustrates War Of Attrition. In a war of attrition, the side that can wait wins, and every cost you have already paid is an argument for stopping, never a reason to continue.

What is the situation in The March Continues?

It is late July 1812 and you stand in Napoleon's headquarters at Vitebsk. You command the largest army Europe has ever assembled, and it is already shrinking. The Russians refuse to stand and fight: they burn their own depots, trade space for time, and fall back east.

What does The March Continues reveal about how people decide?

The war of attrition rewards whoever can wait. Napoleon's opponent never needed to beat him, only to keep him paying. Once you are in a contest where each period of continuing costs more than it gains, the money and lives already spent are not an investment to protect but a bill already paid. Escalating to redeem sunk costs is how large forces destroy themselves against patient ones.

How do you avoid the trap in The March Continues?

Before entering any costly contest, write down the condition under which you will stop. Decide it while you are still cheap to stop, because you will not decide it well once you are deep in.

What is the research behind The March Continues?

Napoleon's Russian campaign is the canonical case of sunk-cost escalation inside a war of attrition. The Russian command under Kutuzov understood that it did not need to defeat the Grande Armee, only to keep it marching and starving. At Vitebsk, at Smolensk, and in Moscow itself, Napoleon faced clean exit points and pressed on each time, partly because so much had already been spent.

How long does The March Continues take to play?

About 8 min, at core difficulty, across 4 decision points. It runs in your browser with no account and no sign-in.

Keep exploring

More Historical Perspective scenarios, or browse all scenarios. New to this? Start with how DecisionPlay works or the game theory glossary.

Topics: sunk-cost, attrition, escalation, napoleonic-wars