Battle of the Sexes
The Holdout Connector
The Holdout Connector is a Battle of the Sexes scenario. The core lesson: Once a market converges on a shared standard, refusing to switch stops being a symmetric choice and becomes an increasingly isolated one, even if the original disagreement is long settled. You run product strategy at an automaker that invested early in its own charging network, built around a connector design different from the one a rival electric vehicle maker popularized. For years, that was a reasonable bet: no dominant standard existed yet, and your network was a genuine selling point. DecisionPlay maps the players, payoffs, and equilibrium dynamics that shape how this situation typically resolves.
The situation
You run product strategy at an automaker that invested early in its own charging network, built around a connector design different from the one a rival electric vehicle maker popularized. For years, that was a reasonable bet: no dominant standard existed yet, and your network was a genuine selling point. Now nearly every other major automaker has switched to the rival's connector, unlocking access to its huge public charging network. Your own network still works, but fewer new charging stations are being built for your original design, and customers are starting to ask why your newest models still ship with a plug most public chargers do not use.
Background
Early in a standards fight, refusing to commit preserves options and can even pay off if your design wins. Once competitors converge on a different standard, though, the calculation changes. Continuing to hold out is no longer about which connector is better. It is about whether the cost of switching, including writing down your own network investment, is worth avoiding, now that nearly everyone else has already paid that cost and moved on.
What this reveals
A settled standard makes holding out a different game
During an open standards fight, refusing to commit is a reasonable hedge. After the market converges, continuing to hold out mostly just delays an outcome that looks close to inevitable, while compounding your switching cost with every additional period you wait.
How to counter it: Regularly ask whether a fight you are still treating as open has actually already been decided by the market around you, since the right strategy for an undecided fight is often the wrong one once it is over.
A question to sit with
Have you kept defending a choice after the market or your peers had clearly already converged on something else? What made it hard to switch?
Frequently asked questions
- What game theory concept does The Holdout Connector illustrate?
- The Holdout Connector illustrates Battle of the Sexes. Once a market converges on a shared standard, refusing to switch stops being a symmetric choice and becomes an increasingly isolated one, even if the original disagreement is long settled.
- What is the situation in The Holdout Connector?
- You run product strategy at an automaker that invested early in its own charging network, built around a connector design different from the one a rival electric vehicle maker popularized. For years, that was a reasonable bet: no dominant standard existed yet, and your network was a genuine selling point. Now nearly every other major automaker has switched to the rival's connector, unlocking access to its huge public charging network.
- What does The Holdout Connector reveal about how people decide?
- A settled standard makes holding out a different game. During an open standards fight, refusing to commit is a reasonable hedge. After the market converges, continuing to hold out mostly just delays an outcome that looks close to inevitable, while compounding your switching cost with every additional period you wait.
- How do you avoid the trap in The Holdout Connector?
- Regularly ask whether a fight you are still treating as open has actually already been decided by the market around you, since the right strategy for an undecided fight is often the wrong one once it is over.
- What is the research behind The Holdout Connector?
- Early in a standards fight, refusing to commit preserves options and can even pay off if your design wins. Once competitors converge on a different standard, though, the calculation changes. Continuing to hold out is no longer about which connector is better.
- How long does The Holdout Connector take to play?
- About 6 min, at core difficulty, across 3 decision points. It runs in your browser with no account and no sign-in.
Keep exploring
More Current Affairs scenarios, or browse all scenarios. New to this? Start with how DecisionPlay works or the game theory glossary.
Topics: battle-of-sexes, standards, network-effects, business