Prisoner's Dilemma
The Fix Is In
The Fix Is In is a Prisoner's Dilemma scenario. The core lesson: A conspiracy nobody can enforce in court is a promise nobody actually has to keep. You are a star player on a championship-caliber team, and a gambler has just offered you money to intentionally lose the biggest series of your career. Several of your teammates have already agreed. DecisionPlay maps the players, payoffs, and equilibrium dynamics that shape how this situation typically resolves.
The situation
You are a star player on a championship-caliber team, and a gambler has just offered you money to intentionally lose the biggest series of your career. Several of your teammates have already agreed. You resent how little the team owner pays you, and the money on the table is real. But you have no way to verify the gambler will actually pay what was promised, no way to know whether the teammates who agreed will actually follow through once the games start, and no way to back out quietly if you say yes and later change your mind.
Background
There is no contract here, no court either side could turn to if the other reneges. Every player weighing the offer has to guess whether the gamblers are trustworthy, whether enough teammates will actually go along with it to make the fix work, and whether the whole scheme will collapse before anyone gets paid or after everyone gets caught.
What this reveals
Unenforceable promises collapse under their own weight
A conspiracy that depends on trusting people you have no legal recourse against is fragile by design. Every participant is individually exposed to being betrayed by any other participant, with no court, contract, or authority they can appeal to if someone breaks the deal.
How to counter it: Before entering any arrangement built on trust alone, ask what happens to you specifically if the other party breaks their word, and whether you would still consider the deal worthwhile even in that scenario.
A question to sit with
Have you ever made an agreement that depended entirely on trusting someone you had no real way to hold accountable? How did it turn out?
Frequently asked questions
- What game theory concept does The Fix Is In illustrate?
- The Fix Is In illustrates Prisoner's Dilemma. A conspiracy nobody can enforce in court is a promise nobody actually has to keep.
- What is the situation in The Fix Is In?
- You are a star player on a championship-caliber team, and a gambler has just offered you money to intentionally lose the biggest series of your career. Several of your teammates have already agreed. You resent how little the team owner pays you, and the money on the table is real.
- What does The Fix Is In reveal about how people decide?
- Unenforceable promises collapse under their own weight. A conspiracy that depends on trusting people you have no legal recourse against is fragile by design. Every participant is individually exposed to being betrayed by any other participant, with no court, contract, or authority they can appeal to if someone breaks the deal.
- How do you avoid the trap in The Fix Is In?
- Before entering any arrangement built on trust alone, ask what happens to you specifically if the other party breaks their word, and whether you would still consider the deal worthwhile even in that scenario.
- What is the research behind The Fix Is In?
- There is no contract here, no court either side could turn to if the other reneges. Every player weighing the offer has to guess whether the gamblers are trustworthy, whether enough teammates will actually go along with it to make the fix work, and whether the whole scheme will collapse before anyone gets paid or after everyone gets caught.
- How long does The Fix Is In take to play?
- About 6 min, at core difficulty, across 3 decision points. It runs in your browser with no account and no sign-in.
Keep exploring
More Historical Perspective scenarios, or browse all scenarios. New to this? Start with how DecisionPlay works or the game theory glossary.
Topics: prisoners-dilemma, trust, unenforceable-agreements, history