Home › Scenarios › The China-Plus-One Gamble

Supply Chain Strategy, First Mover

The China-Plus-One Gamble

The China-Plus-One Gamble is a Supply Chain Strategy and First Mover scenario illustrating When global supply chains diversify away from a dominant manufacturer, the countries that move fastest to capture displaced production win, but moving fast requires accepting deals that may lock in unfavorable terms. Global brands are diversifying manufacturing away from a single dominant supplier. Your developing economy is competing with 4 other countries to capture redirected production. DecisionPlay maps the players, payoffs, and equilibrium dynamics that shape how this situation typically resolves.

Frequently Asked Questions

What game theory model does this scenario illustrate?
The China-Plus-One Gamble illustrates Supply Chain Strategy, First Mover. When global supply chains diversify away from a dominant manufacturer, the countries that move fastest to capture displaced production win, but moving fast requires accepting deals that may lock in unfavorable terms.
What is the Nash equilibrium?
DecisionPlay computes equilibria using best-response iteration and support enumeration. See the interactive analysis for this scenario.
Is this based on a real situation?
Yes. DecisionPlay's library is drawn from real-world conflicts, negotiations, and decisions.
How accurate is the analysis?
DecisionPlay uses a deterministic game-theoretic core with an LLM-based classifier. Verify edge cases against the structural module.
Do I need an account?
No. DecisionPlay is free and requires no login.