Sunk Cost, Multi Criteria
The Career Pivot Question
The Career Pivot Question is a Sunk Cost and Multi Criteria scenario. The core lesson: Sunk costs should not influence future decisions, but they almost always do. You've spent 10 years becoming an expert in a field you no longer enjoy. A new opportunity would pay less and start you over, but genuinely interests you. DecisionPlay maps the players, payoffs, and equilibrium dynamics that shape how this situation typically resolves.
The situation
You've spent 10 years becoming an expert in a field you no longer enjoy. A new opportunity would pay less and start you over, but genuinely interests you. Do you take it?
Background
The sunk cost fallacy is one of the most well-documented and personally costly cognitive biases. The money, time, and effort you've already spent cannot be recovered, so they should have zero weight in your decision about what to do next. Yet research consistently shows humans factor past investment into future choices, often staying in miserable situations because of what they've already put in. The rational question is always: given where I am right now, what's the best path forward?
What this reveals
The sunk cost trap
Past investment is irrelevant to future decision-making, but it activates the same emotional system as real losses. The brain encodes 'abandoning sunk investment' as a loss, triggering loss aversion even when walking away is the right move.
How to counter it: Ask this question: 'If I were starting fresh today with all my skills but none of my history, which path would I choose?' The answer to that question is usually the right one.
A question to sit with
What are you currently holding onto because of what you've already invested, not because of what it offers going forward? What would you choose if you could start fresh with the same skills?
Frequently asked questions
- What game theory concept does The Career Pivot Question illustrate?
- The Career Pivot Question illustrates Sunk Cost, Multi Criteria. Sunk costs should not influence future decisions, but they almost always do.
- What is the situation in The Career Pivot Question?
- You've spent 10 years becoming an expert in a field you no longer enjoy. A new opportunity would pay less and start you over, but genuinely interests you. Do you take it?
- What does The Career Pivot Question reveal about how people decide?
- The sunk cost trap. Past investment is irrelevant to future decision-making, but it activates the same emotional system as real losses. The brain encodes 'abandoning sunk investment' as a loss, triggering loss aversion even when walking away is the right move.
- How do you avoid the trap in The Career Pivot Question?
- Ask this question: 'If I were starting fresh today with all my skills but none of my history, which path would I choose?' The answer to that question is usually the right one.
- What is the research behind The Career Pivot Question?
- The sunk cost fallacy is one of the most well-documented and personally costly cognitive biases. The money, time, and effort you've already spent cannot be recovered, so they should have zero weight in your decision about what to do next. Yet research consistently shows humans factor past investment into future choices, often staying in miserable situations because of what they've already put in.
- How long does The Career Pivot Question take to play?
- About 10 min, at core difficulty, across 4 decision points. It runs in your browser with no account and no sign-in.
Keep exploring
More Personal Decisions scenarios, or browse all scenarios. New to this? Start with how DecisionPlay works or the game theory glossary.
Topics: sunk-cost, career, decision-making, behavioral-econ