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tech · 2025 to 2026
Washington loosened AI chip export rules to China in January, then tightened them again in May. Each swing is a move in an ongoing contest, not a settled policy, and the previous round's substitution effects do not simply reverse.
Facts verified as of July 2026.
On January 14, 2026, the Bureau of Industry and Security revised its license review policy for advanced semiconductors, moving to case-by-case review of export applications for Nvidia's H200 and AMD's MI325X chips to China, chips whose export had previously been effectively blocked [VERIFIED]. Conditions attached to the policy included a cap limiting Chinese shipments to no more than half the volume a company sold to US customers, third-party testing to confirm chip capabilities before shipment, and a requirement that Chinese customers demonstrate sufficient security procedures and certify against military use [VERIFIED].
The loosening did not reverse the underlying market shift already under way. Bernstein Research projected Nvidia's share of China's AI chip market would fall to around 8 percent by the end of 2026, down from roughly 95 percent before export controls began in earlier years, as domestic supplier Huawei's share grew toward roughly half the market [PROJECTED].