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science · 2018 to 2026
No one owns low Earth orbit, and no single agency governs it either. A shared resource that nobody prices is exactly the kind that gets used up faster than anyone intends.
Facts verified as of July 2026.
Orbital congestion has worsened sharply. Researchers using what is called the CRASH Clock, short for Collision Realization and Significant Harm, calculated that if satellite operators suddenly lost maneuvering capability, a catastrophic collision could occur within 2.8 to 5.5 days as of mid-2025, a dramatic tightening of safety margins compared with 2018 [VERIFIED].
The World Economic Forum, working with the Centre for Space Futures, published the first data-driven forecast quantifying the economic cost in its 2026 report, Clear Orbit, Secure Future. It projects that orbital debris could generate 25.8 billion to 42.3 billion dollars in cumulative losses between 2025 and 2035 under a business-as-usual scenario, assuming no major cascading collision event [PROJECTED].